Commanders @ Bengals
Commanders
BengalsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Commanders beat the Bengals 38-33 on the road. The market closed with Commanders at +275 on the moneyline and the total at 46. This was an NFL 2024 week 3 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Bengals betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Bengals betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Bengals?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 26% | 30% | +7.5 (-115) |
| Bengals | 74% | 70% | -7.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 40% | 52% | O 46 (-106) |
| Under | 60% | 39% | U 46 (-111) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 7% | 11% | +275 |
| Bengals | 93% | 89% | -345 |
74% of spread tickets and 70% of spread money were on the Bengals, so the Bengals drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
The under held 60% of total tickets but only 39% of the money; 52% of total money was on the over with 40% of tickets, so the average over bet was larger.
93% of moneyline tickets and 89% of moneyline money were on the Bengals, so the Bengals drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Bengals?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bengals) | -6.5 | -7.5 | -1 |
| Total | 48 | 46 | -2 |
The Bengals opened -6.5 and closed -7.5, a 1-point move toward the Bengals.
The total opened 48 and closed 46, a 2-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Bengals line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Bengals (Bengals -6.5 to Bengals -7.5), the side holding 70% of the spread money and 74% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2 points toward the under (48 to 46) even though 52% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 39% of the money and 60% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.