Saints @ Falcons
Saints
FalconsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Falcons beat the Saints 26-24 at home. The market closed with Saints at +130 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 4 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Saints betting trends · Falcons betting trends · all NFL games
Saints vs Falcons betting splits
Where was the money on Saints vs Falcons?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Saints | 73% | 60% | +3 (-111) |
| Falcons | 27% | 40% | -3 (-108) | |
| Total | Over | 89% | 88% | O 42.5 (-111) |
| Under | 11% | 12% | U 42.5 (-109) |
73% of spread tickets and 60% of spread money were on the Saints, so the Saints drew more tickets than money and the average Falcons bet was larger.
89% of total tickets and 88% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Saints vs Falcons?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Falcons) | -4.5 | -3 | +1.5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 42.5 | -2 |
The Falcons opened -4.5 and closed -3, a 1.5-point move toward the Saints.
The total opened 44.5 and closed 42.5, a 2-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Saints vs Falcons line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the Saints (Falcons -4.5 to Falcons -3), the side holding 60% of the spread money and 73% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2 points toward the under (44.5 to 42.5) even though 88% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 12% of the money and 11% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.