Jaguars @ Texans
Jaguars
TexansArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Texans beat the Jaguars 24-20 at home. The market closed with Jaguars at +190 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 4 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jaguars betting trends · Texans betting trends · all NFL games
Jaguars vs Texans betting splits
Where was the money on Jaguars vs Texans?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars | 40% | 54% | +5.5 (-108) |
| Texans | 60% | 46% | -5.5 (-111) | |
| Total | Over | 88% | 85% | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Under | 12% | 15% | U 44.5 (-110) |
The Texans held 60% of spread tickets but only 46% of the money; 54% of spread money was on the Jaguars with 40% of tickets, so the average Jaguars bet was larger.
88% of total tickets and 85% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jaguars vs Texans?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Texans) | -3.5 | -5.5 | -2 |
| Total | 47.5 | 44.5 | -3 |
The Texans opened -3.5 and closed -5.5, a 2-point move toward the Texans.
The total opened 47.5 and closed 44.5, a 3-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jaguars vs Texans line move?
The spread moved 2 points toward the Texans (Texans -3.5 to Texans -5.5) even though 54% of the spread money sits on the Jaguars; the Texans hold 46% of the money and 60% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 3 points toward the under (47.5 to 44.5) even though 85% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 15% of the money and 12% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.