Vikings @ Packers
Vikings
PackersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 on the road. The market closed with Vikings at +120 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 4 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Vikings betting trends · Packers betting trends · all NFL games
Vikings vs Packers betting splits
Where was the money on Vikings vs Packers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vikings | 78% | 72% | +2.5 (-102) |
| Packers | 22% | 28% | -2.5 (-117) | |
| Total | Over | 89% | 75% | O 44.5 (-109) |
| Under | 11% | 25% | U 44.5 (-111) |
78% of spread tickets and 72% of spread money were on the Vikings, so the Vikings drew more tickets than money and the average Packers bet was larger.
89% of total tickets and 75% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Vikings vs Packers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Packers) | -4.5 | -2.5 | +2 |
| Total | 45 | 44.5 | -0.5 |
The Packers opened -4.5 and closed -2.5, a 2-point move toward the Vikings.
The total opened 45 and closed 44.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Vikings vs Packers line move?
The spread moved 2 points toward the Vikings (Packers -4.5 to Packers -2.5), the side holding 72% of the spread money and 78% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (45 to 44.5) even though 75% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 25% of the money and 11% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.