Patriots @ 49ers
Patriots
49ersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: 49ers beat the Patriots 30-13 at home. The market closed with Patriots at +425 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 4 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · 49ers betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs 49ers betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs 49ers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 33% | 21% | +10.5 (-110) |
| 49ers | 67% | 79% | -10.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 92% | 93% | O 42.5 (-106) |
| Under | 8% | 7% | U 42.5 (-112) |
67% of spread tickets and 79% of spread money were on the 49ers, so the average 49ers bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
92% of total tickets and 93% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs 49ers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (49ers) | -9 | -10.5 | -1.5 |
| Total | 45 | 42.5 | -2.5 |
The 49ers opened -9 and closed -10.5, a 1.5-point move toward the 49ers.
The total opened 45 and closed 42.5, a 2.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs 49ers line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the 49ers (49ers -9 to 49ers -10.5), the side holding 79% of the spread money and 67% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2.5 points toward the under (45 to 42.5) even though 93% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 7% of the money and 8% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.