Chiefs @ Chargers
Chiefs
ChargersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Chargers 17-10 on the road. The market closed with Chiefs at -285 on the moneyline and the total at 42. This was an NFL 2024 week 4 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · Chargers betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs Chargers betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs Chargers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 54% | 43% | -7 (-111) |
| Chargers | 46% | 57% | +7 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 90% | 92% | O 42 (-108) |
| Under | 10% | 8% | U 42 (-111) |
The Chiefs held 54% of spread tickets but only 43% of the money; 57% of spread money was on the Chargers with 46% of tickets, so the average Chargers bet was larger.
90% of total tickets and 92% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs Chargers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chargers) | +3 | +7 | +4 |
| Total | 49 | 42 | -7 |
The Chiefs opened -3 and closed -7, a 4-point move toward the Chiefs.
The total opened 49 and closed 42, a 7-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs Chargers line move?
The spread moved 4 points toward the Chiefs (Chargers +3 to Chargers +7) even though 57% of the spread money sits on the Chargers; the Chiefs hold 43% of the money and 54% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 7 points toward the under (49 to 42) even though 92% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 8% of the money and 10% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.