Buccaneers @ Falcons
Buccaneers
FalconsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Falcons beat the Buccaneers 36-30 at home. The market closed with Buccaneers at +115 on the moneyline and the total at 44. This was an NFL 2024 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Buccaneers betting trends · Falcons betting trends · all NFL games
Buccaneers vs Falcons betting splits
Where was the money on Buccaneers vs Falcons?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers | 70% | 69% | +2.5 (-109) |
| Falcons | 30% | 31% | -2.5 (-111) | |
| Total | Over | 75% | 67% | O 44 (-111) |
| Under | 25% | 33% | U 44 (-108) |
70% of spread tickets and 69% of spread money were on the Buccaneers, so the Buccaneers drew more tickets than money and the average Falcons bet was larger.
75% of total tickets and 67% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Buccaneers vs Falcons?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Falcons) | -3 | -2.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 44 | -0.5 |
The Falcons opened -3 and closed -2.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Buccaneers.
The total opened 44.5 and closed 44, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Buccaneers vs Falcons line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Buccaneers (Falcons -3 to Falcons -2.5), the side holding 69% of the spread money and 70% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (44.5 to 44) even though 67% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 33% of the money and 25% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.