Dolphins @ Patriots
Dolphins
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Dolphins beat the Patriots 15-10 on the road. The market closed with Dolphins at -125 on the moneyline and the total at 36.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Dolphins betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Dolphins vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Dolphins vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins | 39% | 46% | -2 (-115) |
| Patriots | 61% | 54% | +2 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 76% | 53% | O 36.5 (-125) |
| Under | 24% | 47% | U 36.5 (-105) |
61% of spread tickets and 54% of spread money were on the Patriots, so the Patriots drew more tickets than money and the average Dolphins bet was larger.
76% of total tickets and 53% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Dolphins vs Patriots?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | +4.5 | +2 | -2.5 |
| Total | 45 | 36.5 | -8.5 |
The Dolphins opened -4.5 and closed -2, a 2.5-point move toward the Patriots.
The total opened 45 and closed 36.5, a 8.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Dolphins vs Patriots line move?
The spread moved 2.5 points toward the Patriots (Patriots +4.5 to Patriots +2), the side holding 54% of the spread money and 61% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 8.5 points toward the under (45 to 36.5) even though 53% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 47% of the money and 24% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.