Colts @ Jaguars
Colts
JaguarsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Jaguars beat the Colts 37-34 at home. The market closed with Colts at +160 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Colts betting trends · Jaguars betting trends · all NFL games
Colts vs Jaguars betting splits
Where was the money on Colts vs Jaguars?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colts | 64% | 54% | +4 (-106) |
| Jaguars | 36% | 46% | -4 (-113) | |
| Total | Over | 61% | 54% | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Under | 39% | 46% | U 44.5 (-110) |
64% of spread tickets and 54% of spread money were on the Colts, so the Colts drew more tickets than money and the average Jaguars bet was larger.
61% of total tickets and 54% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Colts vs Jaguars?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Jaguars) | -2.5 | -4 | -1.5 |
| Total | 47.5 | 44.5 | -3 |
The Jaguars opened -2.5 and closed -4, a 1.5-point move toward the Jaguars.
The total opened 47.5 and closed 44.5, a 3-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Colts vs Jaguars line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the Jaguars (Jaguars -2.5 to Jaguars -4) even though 54% of the spread money sits on the Colts; the Jaguars hold 46% of the money and 36% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 3 points toward the under (47.5 to 44.5) even though 54% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 46% of the money and 39% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.