Bills @ Texans
Bills
TexansArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Texans beat the Bills 23-20 at home. The market closed with Bills at +105 on the moneyline and the total at 48. This was an NFL 2024 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Texans betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Texans betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Texans?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 72% | 74% | +2 (-112) |
| Texans | 28% | 26% | -2 (-108) | |
| Total | Over | 66% | 80% | O 48 (-108) |
| Under | 34% | 20% | U 48 (-111) |
72% of spread tickets and 74% of spread money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Texans bet.
66% of total tickets and 80% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Texans?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Texans) | -1.5 | -2 | -0.5 |
| Total | 48 | 48 | 0 |
The Texans opened -1.5 and closed -2, a 0.5-point move toward the Texans.
The total opened 48 and closed 48: it has not moved.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Texans line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Texans (Texans -1.5 to Texans -2) even though 74% of the spread money sits on the Bills; the Texans hold 26% of the money and 28% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from its opening number (48) even with 80% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.