Browns @ Commanders
Browns
CommandersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Commanders beat the Browns 34-13 at home. The market closed with Browns at +130 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Browns betting trends · Commanders betting trends · all NFL games
Browns vs Commanders betting splits
Where was the money on Browns vs Commanders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Browns | 51% | 54% | +3 (-115) |
| Commanders | 49% | 46% | -3 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 81% | 74% | O 43.5 (-111) |
| Under | 19% | 26% | U 43.5 (-109) |
51% of spread tickets and 54% of spread money were on the Browns, so the average Browns bet was larger than the average Commanders bet.
81% of total tickets and 74% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Browns vs Commanders?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Commanders) | +3 | -3 | -6 |
| Total | 43.5 | 43.5 | 0 |
The Browns opened -3 and closed +3, a 6-point move toward the Commanders.
The total opened 43.5 and closed 43.5: it has not moved.
Why the line moved
Why did the Browns vs Commanders line move?
The spread moved 6 points toward the Commanders (Commanders +3 to Commanders -3) even though 54% of the spread money sits on the Browns; the Commanders hold 46% of the money and 49% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from its opening number (43.5) even with 74% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.