Commanders @ Ravens
Commanders
RavensArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Ravens beat the Commanders 30-23 at home. The market closed with Commanders at +275 on the moneyline and the total at 50.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Ravens betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Ravens betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Ravens?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 29% | 25% | +7 (-111) |
| Ravens | 71% | 75% | -7 (-109) | |
| Total | Over | 74% | 75% | O 50.5 (-110) |
| Under | 26% | 25% | U 50.5 (-110) |
71% of spread tickets and 75% of spread money were on the Ravens, so the average Ravens bet was larger than the average Commanders bet.
74% of total tickets and 75% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Ravens?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Ravens) | -8.5 | -7 | +1.5 |
| Total | 46.5 | 50.5 | +4 |
The Ravens opened -8.5 and closed -7, a 1.5-point move toward the Commanders.
The total opened 46.5 and closed 50.5, a 4-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Ravens line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the Commanders (Ravens -8.5 to Ravens -7) even though 75% of the spread money sits on the Ravens; the Commanders hold 25% of the money and 29% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 4 points toward the over (46.5 to 50.5), the side holding 75% of the total money and 74% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.