Texans @ Patriots
Texans
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Texans beat the Patriots 41-21 on the road. The market closed with Texans at -270 on the moneyline and the total at 39.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Texans betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Texans vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Texans vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans | 79% | 68% | -6.5 (-109) |
| Patriots | 21% | 32% | +6.5 (-111) | |
| Total | Over | 84% | 74% | O 39.5 (-109) |
| Under | 16% | 26% | U 39.5 (-111) |
79% of spread tickets and 68% of spread money were on the Texans, so the Texans drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
84% of total tickets and 74% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Texans vs Patriots?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | +5.5 | +6.5 | +1 |
| Total | 44 | 39.5 | -4.5 |
The Texans opened -5.5 and closed -6.5, a 1-point move toward the Texans.
The total opened 44 and closed 39.5, a 4.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Texans vs Patriots line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Texans (Patriots +5.5 to Patriots +6.5), the side holding 68% of the spread money and 79% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 4.5 points toward the under (44 to 39.5) even though 74% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 26% of the money and 16% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.