Buccaneers @ Saints
Buccaneers
SaintsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Buccaneers beat the Saints 51-27 on the road. The market closed with Buccaneers at -170 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Buccaneers betting trends · Saints betting trends · all NFL games
Buccaneers vs Saints betting splits
Where was the money on Buccaneers vs Saints?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers | 66% | 73% | -3.5 (-106) |
| Saints | 34% | 27% | +3.5 (-113) | |
| Total | Over | 76% | 68% | O 42.5 (-110) |
| Under | 24% | 32% | U 42.5 (-110) |
66% of spread tickets and 73% of spread money were on the Buccaneers, so the average Buccaneers bet was larger than the average Saints bet.
76% of total tickets and 68% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Buccaneers vs Saints?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Saints) | -1.5 | +3.5 | +5 |
| Total | 43 | 42.5 | -0.5 |
The Saints opened -1.5 and closed +3.5, a 5-point move toward the Buccaneers.
The total opened 43 and closed 42.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Buccaneers vs Saints line move?
The spread moved 5 points toward the Buccaneers (Saints -1.5 to Saints +3.5), the side holding 73% of the spread money and 66% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (43 to 42.5) even though 68% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 32% of the money and 24% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.