Bills @ Jets
Bills
JetsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Jets 23-20 on the road. The market closed with Bills at -140 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Jets betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Jets betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Jets?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 79% | 53% | -1.5 (-112) |
| Jets | 21% | 47% | +1.5 (-108) | |
| Total | Over | 65% | 70% | O 41.5 (-115) |
| Under | 35% | 30% | U 41.5 (-105) |
79% of spread tickets and 53% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Jets bet was larger.
65% of total tickets and 70% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Jets?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Jets) | -1.5 | +1.5 | +3 |
| Total | 47.5 | 41.5 | -6 |
The Jets opened -1.5 and closed +1.5, a 3-point move toward the Bills.
The total opened 47.5 and closed 41.5, a 6-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Jets line move?
The spread moved 3 points toward the Bills (Jets -1.5 to Jets +1.5), the side holding 53% of the spread money and 79% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 6 points toward the under (47.5 to 41.5) even though 70% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 30% of the money and 35% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.