Bears @ Commanders
Bears
CommandersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Commanders beat the Bears 18-15 at home. The market closed with Bears at +105 on the moneyline and the total at 46.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 8 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bears betting trends · Commanders betting trends · all NFL games
Bears vs Commanders betting splits
Where was the money on Bears vs Commanders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears | 38% | 36% | +1.5 (-110) |
| Commanders | 62% | 64% | -1.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 84% | 86% | O 46.5 (-110) |
| Under | 16% | 14% | U 46.5 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Bears | 36% | 37% | +105 |
| Commanders | 64% | 63% | -125 |
62% of spread tickets and 64% of spread money were on the Commanders, so the average Commanders bet was larger than the average Bears bet.
84% of total tickets and 86% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
64% of moneyline tickets and 63% of moneyline money were on the Commanders, so the Commanders drew more tickets than money and the average Bears bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bears vs Commanders?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Commanders) | +2 | -1.5 | -3.5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 46.5 | +2 |
The Bears opened -2 and closed +1.5, a 3.5-point move toward the Commanders.
The total opened 44.5 and closed 46.5, a 2-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bears vs Commanders line move?
The spread moved 3.5 points toward the Commanders (Commanders +2 to Commanders -1.5), the side holding 64% of the spread money and 62% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2 points toward the over (44.5 to 46.5), the side holding 86% of the total money and 84% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.