Dolphins @ Bills
Dolphins
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Dolphins 30-27 at home. The market closed with Dolphins at +240 on the moneyline and the total at 49. This was an NFL 2024 week 9 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Dolphins betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Dolphins vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Dolphins vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins | 29% | 30% | +6.5 (-108) |
| Bills | 71% | 70% | -6.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 74% | 86% | O 49 (-112) |
| Under | 26% | 14% | U 49 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | 8% | 11% | +240 |
| Bills | 92% | 89% | -298 |
71% of spread tickets and 70% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Dolphins bet was larger.
74% of total tickets and 86% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
92% of moneyline tickets and 89% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Dolphins bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Dolphins vs Bills?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -3 | -6.5 | -3.5 |
| Total | 51 | 49 | -2 |
The Bills opened -3 and closed -6.5, a 3.5-point move toward the Bills.
The total opened 51 and closed 49, a 2-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Dolphins vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 3.5 points toward the Bills (Bills -3 to Bills -6.5), the side holding 70% of the spread money and 71% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2 points toward the under (51 to 49) even though 86% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 14% of the money and 26% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.