Buccaneers @ Chiefs
Buccaneers
ChiefsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Buccaneers 30-24 at home. The market closed with Buccaneers at +340 on the moneyline and the total at 45.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 9 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Buccaneers betting trends · Chiefs betting trends · all NFL games
Buccaneers vs Chiefs betting splits
Where was the money on Buccaneers vs Chiefs?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers | 48% | 51% | +9 (-110) |
| Chiefs | 0% | 49% | -9 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 81% | 83% | O 45.5 (-110) |
| Under | 19% | 17% | U 45.5 (-108) |
48% of spread tickets and 51% of spread money were on the Buccaneers, so the average Buccaneers bet was larger than the average Chiefs bet.
81% of total tickets and 83% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Buccaneers vs Chiefs?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chiefs) | -7.5 | -9 | -1.5 |
| Total | 47 | 45.5 | -1.5 |
The Chiefs opened -7.5 and closed -9, a 1.5-point move toward the Chiefs.
The total opened 47 and closed 45.5, a 1.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Buccaneers vs Chiefs line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the Chiefs (Chiefs -7.5 to Chiefs -9) even though 51% of the spread money sits on the Buccaneers; the Chiefs hold 49% of the money and 0% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 1.5 points toward the under (47 to 45.5) even though 83% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 17% of the money and 19% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.