Patriots @ Bears
Patriots
BearsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Patriots beat the Bears 19-3 on the road. The market closed with Patriots at +242 on the moneyline and the total at 37.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 10 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Bears betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Bears betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Bears?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 38% | 32% | +6.5 (-110) |
| Bears | 62% | 68% | -6.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 81% | 55% | O 37.5 (-110) |
| Under | 19% | 45% | U 37.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 11% | 7% | +242 |
| Bears | 89% | 93% | -302 |
62% of spread tickets and 68% of spread money were on the Bears, so the average Bears bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
81% of total tickets and 55% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
89% of moneyline tickets and 93% of moneyline money were on the Bears, so the average Bears bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Bears?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bears) | -5.5 | -6.5 | -1 |
| Total | 43 | 37.5 | -5.5 |
The Bears opened -5.5 and closed -6.5, a 1-point move toward the Bears.
The total opened 43 and closed 37.5, a 5.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Bears line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Bears (Bears -5.5 to Bears -6.5), the side holding 68% of the spread money and 62% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 5.5 points toward the under (43 to 37.5) even though 55% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 45% of the money and 19% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.