Steelers @ Commanders
Steelers
CommandersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Steelers beat the Commanders 28-27 on the road. The market closed with Steelers at +105 on the moneyline and the total at 45.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 10 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Steelers betting trends · Commanders betting trends · all NFL games
Steelers vs Commanders betting splits
Where was the money on Steelers vs Commanders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Steelers | 66% | 71% | +1.5 (-105) |
| Commanders | 34% | 29% | -1.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 80% | 91% | O 45.5 (-110) |
| Under | 20% | 9% | U 45.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Steelers | 31% | 43% | +105 |
| Commanders | 69% | 57% | -125 |
66% of spread tickets and 71% of spread money were on the Steelers, so the average Steelers bet was larger than the average Commanders bet.
80% of total tickets and 91% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
69% of moneyline tickets and 57% of moneyline money were on the Commanders, so the Commanders drew more tickets than money and the average Steelers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Steelers vs Commanders?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Commanders) | +1.5 | -1.5 | -3 |
| Total | 43.5 | 45.5 | +2 |
The Steelers opened -1.5 and closed +1.5, a 3-point move toward the Commanders.
The total opened 43.5 and closed 45.5, a 2-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Steelers vs Commanders line move?
The spread moved 3 points toward the Commanders (Commanders +1.5 to Commanders -1.5) even though 71% of the spread money sits on the Steelers; the Commanders hold 29% of the money and 34% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 2 points toward the over (43.5 to 45.5), the side holding 91% of the total money and 80% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.