Bills @ Colts
Bills
ColtsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Colts 30-20 on the road. The market closed with Bills at -230 on the moneyline and the total at 46.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 10 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Colts betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Colts betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Colts?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 76% | 68% | -4.5 (-115) |
| Colts | 24% | 32% | +4.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 75% | 67% | O 46.5 (-112) |
| Under | 25% | 33% | U 46.5 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Bills | 92% | 95% | -230 |
| Colts | 8% | 5% | +190 |
76% of spread tickets and 68% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Colts bet was larger.
75% of total tickets and 67% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
92% of moneyline tickets and 95% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Colts bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Colts?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Colts) | +2 | +4.5 | +2.5 |
| Total | 46.5 | 46.5 | 0 |
The Bills opened -2 and closed -4.5, a 2.5-point move toward the Bills.
The total opened 46.5 and closed 46.5: it has not moved.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Colts line move?
The spread moved 2.5 points toward the Bills (Colts +2 to Colts +4.5), the side holding 68% of the spread money and 76% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total did not move from its opening number (46.5) even with 67% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.