Broncos @ Chiefs
Broncos
ChiefsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Broncos 16-14 at home. The market closed with Broncos at +290 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 10 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Broncos betting trends · Chiefs betting trends · all NFL games
Broncos vs Chiefs betting splits
Where was the money on Broncos vs Chiefs?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos | 36% | 45% | +7.5 (-115) |
| Chiefs | 64% | 55% | -7.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 82% | 67% | O 42.5 (-110) |
| Under | 18% | 33% | U 42.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Broncos | 4% | 15% | +290 |
| Chiefs | 96% | 85% | -360 |
64% of spread tickets and 55% of spread money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Broncos bet was larger.
82% of total tickets and 67% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
96% of moneyline tickets and 85% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Broncos bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Broncos vs Chiefs?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chiefs) | -9.5 | -7.5 | +2 |
| Total | 46 | 42.5 | -3.5 |
The Chiefs opened -9.5 and closed -7.5, a 2-point move toward the Broncos.
The total opened 46 and closed 42.5, a 3.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Broncos vs Chiefs line move?
The spread moved 2 points toward the Broncos (Chiefs -9.5 to Chiefs -7.5) even though 55% of the spread money sits on the Chiefs; the Broncos hold 45% of the money and 36% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 3.5 points toward the under (46 to 42.5) even though 67% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 33% of the money and 18% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.