49ers @ Buccaneers
49ers
BuccaneersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: 49ers beat the Buccaneers 23-20 on the road. The market closed with 49ers at -300 on the moneyline and the total at 50.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 10 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: 49ers betting trends · Buccaneers betting trends · all NFL games
49ers vs Buccaneers betting splits
Where was the money on 49ers vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 49ers | 55% | 61% | -6.5 (-118) |
| Buccaneers | 45% | 39% | +6.5 (-102) | |
| Total | Over | 72% | 65% | O 50.5 (-106) |
| Under | 28% | 35% | U 50.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | 49ers | 83% | 65% | -300 |
| Buccaneers | 17% | 35% | +240 |
55% of spread tickets and 61% of spread money were on the 49ers, so the average 49ers bet was larger than the average Buccaneers bet.
72% of total tickets and 65% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
83% of moneyline tickets and 65% of moneyline money were on the 49ers, so the 49ers drew more tickets than money and the average Buccaneers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for 49ers vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Buccaneers) | +7 | +6.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 46.5 | 50.5 | +4 |
The 49ers opened -7 and closed -6.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Buccaneers.
The total opened 46.5 and closed 50.5, a 4-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the 49ers vs Buccaneers line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Buccaneers (Buccaneers +7 to Buccaneers +6.5) even though 61% of the spread money sits on the 49ers; the Buccaneers hold 39% of the money and 45% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 4 points toward the over (46.5 to 50.5), the side holding 65% of the total money and 72% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.