Packers @ Bears
Packers
BearsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Packers beat the Bears 20-19 on the road. The market closed with Packers at -270 on the moneyline and the total at 41. This was an NFL 2024 week 11 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Packers betting trends · Bears betting trends · all NFL games
Packers vs Bears betting splits
Where was the money on Packers vs Bears?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Packers | 77% | 82% | -6 (-115) |
| Bears | 23% | 18% | +6 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 75% | 65% | O 41 (-112) |
| Under | 25% | 35% | U 41 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Packers | 85% | 95% | -270 |
| Bears | 15% | 5% | +220 |
77% of spread tickets and 82% of spread money were on the Packers, so the average Packers bet was larger than the average Bears bet.
75% of total tickets and 65% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
85% of moneyline tickets and 95% of moneyline money were on the Packers, so the average Packers bet was larger than the average Bears bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Packers vs Bears?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bears) | +1 | +6 | +5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 41 | -3.5 |
The Packers opened -1 and closed -6, a 5-point move toward the Packers.
The total opened 44.5 and closed 41, a 3.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Packers vs Bears line move?
The spread moved 5 points toward the Packers (Bears +1 to Bears +6), the side holding 82% of the spread money and 77% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 3.5 points toward the under (44.5 to 41) even though 65% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 35% of the money and 25% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.