Raiders @ Dolphins
Raiders
DolphinsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Dolphins beat the Raiders 34-19 at home. The market closed with Raiders at +330 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 11 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Raiders betting trends · Dolphins betting trends · all NFL games
Raiders vs Dolphins betting splits
Where was the money on Raiders vs Dolphins?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Raiders | 25% | 18% | +8 (-105) |
| Dolphins | 75% | 82% | -8 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 72% | 58% | O 43.5 (-110) |
| Under | 28% | 42% | U 43.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Raiders | 6% | 9% | +330 |
| Dolphins | 94% | 91% | -425 |
75% of spread tickets and 82% of spread money were on the Dolphins, so the average Dolphins bet was larger than the average Raiders bet.
72% of total tickets and 58% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
94% of moneyline tickets and 91% of moneyline money were on the Dolphins, so the Dolphins drew more tickets than money and the average Raiders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Raiders vs Dolphins?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Dolphins) | -6.5 | -8 | -1.5 |
| Total | 47 | 43.5 | -3.5 |
The Dolphins opened -6.5 and closed -8, a 1.5-point move toward the Dolphins.
The total opened 47 and closed 43.5, a 3.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Raiders vs Dolphins line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the Dolphins (Dolphins -6.5 to Dolphins -8), the side holding 82% of the spread money and 75% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 3.5 points toward the under (47 to 43.5) even though 58% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 42% of the money and 28% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.