Rams @ Patriots
Rams
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Rams beat the Patriots 28-22 on the road. The market closed with Rams at -205 on the moneyline and the total at 42. This was an NFL 2024 week 11 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Rams betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Rams vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Rams vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rams | 73% | 77% | -4 (-108) |
| Patriots | 27% | 23% | +4 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 47% | 35% | O 42 (-110) |
| Under | 53% | 65% | U 42 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Rams | 73% | 89% | -205 |
| Patriots | 27% | 11% | +172 |
73% of spread tickets and 77% of spread money were on the Rams, so the average Rams bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
53% of total tickets and 65% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
73% of moneyline tickets and 89% of moneyline money were on the Rams, so the average Rams bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Rams vs Patriots?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | +4 | +4 | 0 |
| Total | 43.5 | 42 | -1.5 |
The Rams opened -4 and closed -4: the spread has not moved.
The total opened 43.5 and closed 42, a 1.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Rams vs Patriots line move?
The spread did not move from its opening number (Patriots +4) even with 77% of the spread money on the Rams. The total moved 1.5 points toward the under (43.5 to 42), the side holding 65% of the total money and 53% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.