Falcons @ Broncos
Falcons
BroncosArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Falcons 38-6 at home. The market closed with Falcons at +112 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 11 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Falcons betting trends · Broncos betting trends · all NFL games
Falcons vs Broncos betting splits
Where was the money on Falcons vs Broncos?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Falcons | 76% | 73% | +2 (-108) |
| Broncos | 24% | 27% | -2 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 72% | 71% | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Under | 28% | 29% | U 44.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Falcons | 41% | 57% | +112 |
| Broncos | 59% | 43% | -132 |
76% of spread tickets and 73% of spread money were on the Falcons, so the Falcons drew more tickets than money and the average Broncos bet was larger.
72% of total tickets and 71% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
The Broncos held 59% of moneyline tickets but only 43% of the money; 57% of moneyline money was on the Falcons with 41% of tickets, so the average Falcons bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Falcons vs Broncos?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Broncos) | +3.5 | -2 | -5.5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 44.5 | 0 |
The Falcons opened -3.5 and closed +2, a 5.5-point move toward the Broncos.
The total opened 44.5 and closed 44.5: it has not moved.
Why the line moved
Why did the Falcons vs Broncos line move?
The spread moved 5.5 points toward the Broncos (Broncos +3.5 to Broncos -2) even though 73% of the spread money sits on the Falcons; the Broncos hold 27% of the money and 24% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from its opening number (44.5) even with 71% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.