Chiefs @ Bills
Chiefs
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 at home. The market closed with Chiefs at +125 on the moneyline and the total at 47. This was an NFL 2024 week 11 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 85% | 81% | +2.5 (+100) |
| Bills | 15% | 19% | -2.5 (-122) | |
| Total | Over | 77% | 74% | O 47 (-115) |
| Under | 23% | 26% | U 47 (-105) | |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | 40% | 59% | +125 |
| Bills | 60% | 41% | -150 |
85% of spread tickets and 81% of spread money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Bills bet was larger.
77% of total tickets and 74% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
The Bills held 60% of moneyline tickets but only 41% of the money; 59% of moneyline money was on the Chiefs with 40% of tickets, so the average Chiefs bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs Bills?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | +1 | -2.5 | -3.5 |
| Total | 48 | 47 | -1 |
The Chiefs opened -1 and closed +2.5, a 3.5-point move toward the Bills.
The total opened 48 and closed 47, a 1-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 3.5 points toward the Bills (Bills +1 to Bills -2.5) even though 81% of the spread money sits on the Chiefs; the Bills hold 19% of the money and 15% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 1 point toward the under (48 to 47) even though 74% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 26% of the money and 23% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.