Vikings @ Bears
Vikings
BearsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Vikings beat the Bears 30-27 on the road. The market closed with Vikings at -162 on the moneyline and the total at 39.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 12 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Vikings betting trends · Bears betting trends · all NFL games
Vikings vs Bears betting splits
Where was the money on Vikings vs Bears?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vikings | 52% | 41% | -3 (-105) |
| Bears | 48% | 59% | +3 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 76% | 53% | O 39.5 (-112) |
| Under | 24% | 47% | U 39.5 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Vikings | 81% | 92% | -162 |
| Bears | 19% | 8% | +136 |
The Vikings held 52% of spread tickets but only 41% of the money; 59% of spread money was on the Bears with 48% of tickets, so the average Bears bet was larger.
76% of total tickets and 53% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
81% of moneyline tickets and 92% of moneyline money were on the Vikings, so the average Vikings bet was larger than the average Bears bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Vikings vs Bears?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bears) | -3.5 | +3 | +6.5 |
| Total | 45 | 39.5 | -5.5 |
The Bears opened -3.5 and closed +3, a 6.5-point move toward the Vikings.
The total opened 45 and closed 39.5, a 5.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Vikings vs Bears line move?
The spread moved 6.5 points toward the Vikings (Bears -3.5 to Bears +3) even though 59% of the spread money sits on the Bears; the Vikings hold 41% of the money and 52% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 5.5 points toward the under (45 to 39.5) even though 53% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 47% of the money and 24% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.