Patriots @ Dolphins
Patriots
DolphinsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Dolphins beat the Patriots 34-15 at home. The market closed with Patriots at +287 on the moneyline and the total at 45.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 12 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Dolphins betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Dolphins betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Dolphins?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 39% | 41% | +7.5 (-115) |
| Dolphins | 61% | 59% | -7.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 70% | 50% | O 45.5 (-110) |
| Under | 30% | 50% | U 45.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 8% | 12% | +287 |
| Dolphins | 92% | 88% | -360 |
61% of spread tickets and 59% of spread money were on the Dolphins, so the Dolphins drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
Total money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 70% Over, 30% Under).
92% of moneyline tickets and 88% of moneyline money were on the Dolphins, so the Dolphins drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Dolphins?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Dolphins) | -7.5 | -7.5 | 0 |
| Total | 45 | 45.5 | +0.5 |
The Dolphins opened -7.5 and closed -7.5: the spread has not moved.
The total opened 45 and closed 45.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Dolphins line move?
The spread did not move from its opening number (Dolphins -7.5) even with 59% of the spread money on the Dolphins. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (45 to 45.5); total money is split evenly, so the move did not follow either side's money. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.