Lions @ Colts
Lions
ColtsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Lions beat the Colts 24-6 on the road. The market closed with Lions at -360 on the moneyline and the total at 50.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 12 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Lions betting trends · Colts betting trends · all NFL games
Lions vs Colts betting splits
Where was the money on Lions vs Colts?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions | 78% | 44% | -7 (-115) |
| Colts | 22% | 56% | +7 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 74% | 78% | O 50.5 (-110) |
| Under | 26% | 22% | U 50.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Lions | 95% | 99% | -360 |
| Colts | 5% | 1% | +285 |
The Lions held 78% of spread tickets but only 44% of the money; 56% of spread money was on the Colts with 22% of tickets, so the average Colts bet was larger.
74% of total tickets and 78% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
95% of moneyline tickets and 99% of moneyline money were on the Lions, so the average Lions bet was larger than the average Colts bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Lions vs Colts?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Colts) | +2.5 | +7 | +4.5 |
| Total | 48.5 | 50.5 | +2 |
The Lions opened -2.5 and closed -7, a 4.5-point move toward the Lions.
The total opened 48.5 and closed 50.5, a 2-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Lions vs Colts line move?
The spread moved 4.5 points toward the Lions (Colts +2.5 to Colts +7) even though 56% of the spread money sits on the Colts; the Lions hold 44% of the money and 78% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 2 points toward the over (48.5 to 50.5), the side holding 78% of the total money and 74% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.