Bears @ 49ers
Bears
49ersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: 49ers beat the Bears 38-13 at home. The market closed with Bears at +138 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 14 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bears betting trends · 49ers betting trends · all NFL games
Bears vs 49ers betting splits
Where was the money on Bears vs 49ers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears | 63% | 65% | +3 (-110) |
| 49ers | 37% | 35% | -3 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 78% | 62% | O 43.5 (-110) |
| Under | 22% | 38% | U 43.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Bears | 23% | 38% | +138 |
| 49ers | 77% | 62% | -163 |
63% of spread tickets and 65% of spread money were on the Bears, so the average Bears bet was larger than the average 49ers bet.
78% of total tickets and 62% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
77% of moneyline tickets and 62% of moneyline money were on the 49ers, so the 49ers drew more tickets than money and the average Bears bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bears vs 49ers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (49ers) | -5.5 | -3 | +2.5 |
| Total | 47.5 | 43.5 | -4 |
The 49ers opened -5.5 and closed -3, a 2.5-point move toward the Bears.
The total opened 47.5 and closed 43.5, a 4-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bears vs 49ers line move?
The spread moved 2.5 points toward the Bears (49ers -5.5 to 49ers -3), the side holding 65% of the spread money and 63% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 4 points toward the under (47.5 to 43.5) even though 62% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 38% of the money and 22% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.