Chiefs @ Browns
Chiefs
BrownsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Browns 21-7 on the road. The market closed with Chiefs at -227 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 15 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · Browns betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs Browns betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs Browns?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 57% | 53% | -4.5 (-110) |
| Browns | 43% | 47% | +4.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 76% | 45% | O 41.5 (-105) |
| Under | 24% | 55% | U 41.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | 92% | 95% | -227 |
| Browns | 8% | 5% | +187 |
57% of spread tickets and 53% of spread money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Browns bet was larger.
The over held 76% of total tickets but only 45% of the money; 55% of total money was on the under with 24% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
92% of moneyline tickets and 95% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the average Chiefs bet was larger than the average Browns bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs Browns?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Browns) | +2.5 | +4.5 | +2 |
| Total | 46.5 | 41.5 | -5 |
The Chiefs opened -2.5 and closed -4.5, a 2-point move toward the Chiefs.
The total opened 46.5 and closed 41.5, a 5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs Browns line move?
The spread moved 2 points toward the Chiefs (Browns +2.5 to Browns +4.5), the side holding 53% of the spread money and 57% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 5 points toward the under (46.5 to 41.5), the side holding 55% of the total money and 24% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.