Dolphins @ Texans
Dolphins
TexansArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Texans beat the Dolphins 20-12 at home. The market closed with Dolphins at +130 on the moneyline and the total at 46.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 15 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Dolphins betting trends · Texans betting trends · all NFL games
Dolphins vs Texans betting splits
Where was the money on Dolphins vs Texans?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins | 62% | 74% | +2.5 (-105) |
| Texans | 38% | 26% | -2.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 73% | 57% | O 46.5 (-108) |
| Under | 27% | 43% | U 46.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | 30% | 39% | +130 |
| Texans | 70% | 61% | -154 |
62% of spread tickets and 74% of spread money were on the Dolphins, so the average Dolphins bet was larger than the average Texans bet.
73% of total tickets and 57% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
70% of moneyline tickets and 61% of moneyline money were on the Texans, so the Texans drew more tickets than money and the average Dolphins bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Dolphins vs Texans?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Texans) | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 |
| Total | 49.5 | 46.5 | -3 |
The Texans opened -2.5 and closed -2.5: the spread has not moved.
The total opened 49.5 and closed 46.5, a 3-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Dolphins vs Texans line move?
The spread did not move from its opening number (Texans -2.5) even with 74% of the spread money on the Dolphins. The total moved 3 points toward the under (49.5 to 46.5) even though 57% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 43% of the money and 27% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.