Commanders @ Saints
Commanders
SaintsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Commanders beat the Saints 20-19 on the road. The market closed with Commanders at -395 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 15 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Saints betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Saints betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Saints?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 77% | 78% | -7.5 (-120) |
| Saints | 23% | 22% | +7.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 79% | 62% | O 44.5 (-115) |
| Under | 21% | 38% | U 44.5 (-115) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 91% | 72% | -395 |
| Saints | 9% | 28% | +290 |
77% of spread tickets and 78% of spread money were on the Commanders, so the average Commanders bet was larger than the average Saints bet.
79% of total tickets and 62% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
91% of moneyline tickets and 72% of moneyline money were on the Commanders, so the Commanders drew more tickets than money and the average Saints bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Saints?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Saints) | -3 | +7.5 | +10.5 |
| Total | 42 | 44.5 | +2.5 |
The Saints opened -3 and closed +7.5, a 10.5-point move toward the Commanders.
The total opened 42 and closed 44.5, a 2.5-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Saints line move?
The spread moved 10.5 points toward the Commanders (Saints -3 to Saints +7.5), the side holding 78% of the spread money and 77% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 2.5 points toward the over (42 to 44.5), the side holding 62% of the total money and 79% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.