Colts @ Broncos
Colts
BroncosArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Colts 31-13 at home. The market closed with Colts at +190 on the moneyline and the total at 44. This was an NFL 2024 week 15 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Colts betting trends · Broncos betting trends · all NFL games
Colts vs Broncos betting splits
Where was the money on Colts vs Broncos?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colts | 37% | 34% | +4.5 (-105) |
| Broncos | 63% | 66% | -4.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 78% | 55% | O 44 (-110) |
| Under | 22% | 45% | U 44 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Colts | 14% | 6% | +190 |
| Broncos | 86% | 94% | -230 |
63% of spread tickets and 66% of spread money were on the Broncos, so the average Broncos bet was larger than the average Colts bet.
78% of total tickets and 55% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
86% of moneyline tickets and 94% of moneyline money were on the Broncos, so the average Broncos bet was larger than the average Colts bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Colts vs Broncos?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Broncos) | +2.5 | -4.5 | -7 |
| Total | 44.5 | 44 | -0.5 |
The Colts opened -2.5 and closed +4.5, a 7-point move toward the Broncos.
The total opened 44.5 and closed 44, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Colts vs Broncos line move?
The spread moved 7 points toward the Broncos (Broncos +2.5 to Broncos -4.5), the side holding 66% of the spread money and 63% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (44.5 to 44) even though 55% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 45% of the money and 22% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.