Bills @ Lions
Bills
LionsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Lions 48-42 on the road. The market closed with Bills at +124 on the moneyline and the total at 55.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 15 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Lions betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Lions betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Lions?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 69% | 74% | +2.5 (-105) |
| Lions | 31% | 26% | -2.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 72% | 67% | O 55.5 (-120) |
| Under | 28% | 33% | U 55.5 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Bills | 29% | 47% | +124 |
| Lions | 71% | 53% | -148 |
69% of spread tickets and 74% of spread money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Lions bet.
72% of total tickets and 67% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
71% of moneyline tickets and 53% of moneyline money were on the Lions, so the Lions drew more tickets than money and the average Bills bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Lions?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Lions) | -2 | -2.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 50.5 | 55.5 | +5 |
The Lions opened -2 and closed -2.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Lions.
The total opened 50.5 and closed 55.5, a 5-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Lions line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Lions (Lions -2 to Lions -2.5) even though 74% of the spread money sits on the Bills; the Lions hold 26% of the money and 31% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 5 points toward the over (50.5 to 55.5), the side holding 67% of the total money and 72% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.