Texans @ Chiefs
Texans
ChiefsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19 at home. The market closed with Texans at +158 on the moneyline and the total at 43. This was an NFL 2024 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Texans betting trends · Chiefs betting trends · all NFL games
Texans vs Chiefs betting splits
Where was the money on Texans vs Chiefs?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans | 61% | 61% | +3.5 (-120) |
| Chiefs | 39% | 39% | -3.5 (+100) | |
| Total | Over | 78% | 80% | O 43 (-108) |
| Under | 22% | 20% | U 43 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Texans | 17% | 26% | +158 |
| Chiefs | 83% | 74% | -190 |
61% of spread tickets and 61% of spread money were on the Texans, with money and tickets in step.
78% of total tickets and 80% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
83% of moneyline tickets and 74% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Texans bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Texans vs Chiefs?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chiefs) | -4 | -3.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 48 | 43 | -5 |
The Chiefs opened -4 and closed -3.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Texans.
The total opened 48 and closed 43, a 5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Texans vs Chiefs line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Texans (Chiefs -4 to Chiefs -3.5), the side holding 61% of the spread money and 61% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 5 points toward the under (48 to 43) even though 80% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 20% of the money and 22% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.