Patriots @ Bills
Patriots
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Patriots 24-21 at home. The market closed with Patriots at +700 on the moneyline and the total at 48. This was an NFL 2024 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 19% | 23% | +14 (-110) |
| Bills | 81% | 77% | -14 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 70% | 75% | O 48 (-110) |
| Under | 30% | 25% | U 48 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 6% | 5% | +700 |
| Bills | 94% | 95% | -1100 |
81% of spread tickets and 77% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
70% of total tickets and 75% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
94% of moneyline tickets and 95% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Bills?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -8.5 | -14 | -5.5 |
| Total | 44.5 | 48 | +3.5 |
The Bills opened -8.5 and closed -14, a 5.5-point move toward the Bills.
The total opened 44.5 and closed 48, a 3.5-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 5.5 points toward the Bills (Bills -8.5 to Bills -14), the side holding 77% of the spread money and 81% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 3.5 points toward the over (44.5 to 48), the side holding 75% of the total money and 70% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.