Broncos @ Chargers
Broncos
ChargersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chargers beat the Broncos 34-27 at home. The market closed with Broncos at +130 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Broncos betting trends · Chargers betting trends · all NFL games
Broncos vs Chargers betting splits
Where was the money on Broncos vs Chargers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos | 66% | 55% | +3 (-115) |
| Chargers | 34% | 45% | -3 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 78% | 67% | O 41.5 (-110) |
| Under | 22% | 33% | U 41.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Broncos | 29% | 35% | +130 |
| Chargers | 71% | 65% | -155 |
66% of spread tickets and 55% of spread money were on the Broncos, so the Broncos drew more tickets than money and the average Chargers bet was larger.
78% of total tickets and 67% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
71% of moneyline tickets and 65% of moneyline money were on the Chargers, so the Chargers drew more tickets than money and the average Broncos bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Broncos vs Chargers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chargers) | -4 | -3 | +1 |
| Total | 43 | 41.5 | -1.5 |
The Chargers opened -4 and closed -3, a 1-point move toward the Broncos.
The total opened 43 and closed 41.5, a 1.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Broncos vs Chargers line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Broncos (Chargers -4 to Chargers -3), the side holding 55% of the spread money and 66% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1.5 points toward the under (43 to 41.5) even though 67% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 33% of the money and 22% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.