49ers @ Dolphins
49ers
DolphinsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Dolphins beat the 49ers 29-17 at home. The market closed with 49ers at -125 on the moneyline and the total at 44. This was an NFL 2024 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: 49ers betting trends · Dolphins betting trends · all NFL games
49ers vs Dolphins betting splits
Where was the money on 49ers vs Dolphins?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 49ers | 34% | 31% | -1.5 (-110) |
| Dolphins | 66% | 69% | +1.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 73% | 71% | O 44 (-110) |
| Under | 27% | 29% | U 44 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | 49ers | 51% | 64% | -125 |
| Dolphins | 49% | 36% | +105 |
66% of spread tickets and 69% of spread money were on the Dolphins, so the average Dolphins bet was larger than the average 49ers bet.
73% of total tickets and 71% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
51% of moneyline tickets and 64% of moneyline money were on the 49ers, so the average 49ers bet was larger than the average Dolphins bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for 49ers vs Dolphins?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Dolphins) | +1 | +1.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 49 | 44 | -5 |
The 49ers opened -1 and closed -1.5, a 0.5-point move toward the 49ers.
The total opened 49 and closed 44, a 5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the 49ers vs Dolphins line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the 49ers (Dolphins +1 to Dolphins +1.5) even though 69% of the spread money sits on the Dolphins; the 49ers hold 31% of the money and 34% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 5 points toward the under (49 to 44) even though 71% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 29% of the money and 27% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.