Jaguars @ Raiders
Jaguars
RaidersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Raiders beat the Jaguars 19-14 at home. The market closed with Jaguars at +110 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jaguars betting trends · Raiders betting trends · all NFL games
Jaguars vs Raiders betting splits
Where was the money on Jaguars vs Raiders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars | 70% | 68% | +2 (-108) |
| Raiders | 30% | 32% | -2 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 67% | 74% | O 41.5 (-110) |
| Under | 33% | 26% | U 41.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Jaguars | 26% | 39% | +110 |
| Raiders | 74% | 61% | -130 |
70% of spread tickets and 68% of spread money were on the Jaguars, so the Jaguars drew more tickets than money and the average Raiders bet was larger.
67% of total tickets and 74% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
74% of moneyline tickets and 61% of moneyline money were on the Raiders, so the Raiders drew more tickets than money and the average Jaguars bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jaguars vs Raiders?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Raiders) | +1 | -2 | -3 |
| Total | 45.5 | 41.5 | -4 |
The Jaguars opened -1 and closed +2, a 3-point move toward the Raiders.
The total opened 45.5 and closed 41.5, a 4-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jaguars vs Raiders line move?
The spread moved 3 points toward the Raiders (Raiders +1 to Raiders -2) even though 68% of the spread money sits on the Jaguars; the Raiders hold 32% of the money and 30% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 4 points toward the under (45.5 to 41.5) even though 74% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 26% of the money and 33% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.