Falcons @ Commanders
Falcons
CommandersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Commanders beat the Falcons 30-24 at home. The market closed with Falcons at +154 on the moneyline and the total at 46.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 17 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Falcons betting trends · Commanders betting trends · all NFL games
Falcons vs Commanders betting splits
Where was the money on Falcons vs Commanders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Falcons | 33% | 45% | +3.5 (-115) |
| Commanders | 67% | 55% | -3.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 72% | 70% | O 46.5 (-110) |
| Under | 28% | 30% | U 46.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Falcons | 10% | 6% | +154 |
| Commanders | 90% | 94% | -185 |
67% of spread tickets and 55% of spread money were on the Commanders, so the Commanders drew more tickets than money and the average Falcons bet was larger.
72% of total tickets and 70% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
90% of moneyline tickets and 94% of moneyline money were on the Commanders, so the average Commanders bet was larger than the average Falcons bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Falcons vs Commanders?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Commanders) | -4.5 | -3.5 | +1 |
| Total | 48 | 46.5 | -1.5 |
The Commanders opened -4.5 and closed -3.5, a 1-point move toward the Falcons.
The total opened 48 and closed 46.5, a 1.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Falcons vs Commanders line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Falcons (Commanders -4.5 to Commanders -3.5) even though 55% of the spread money sits on the Commanders; the Falcons hold 45% of the money and 33% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 1.5 points toward the under (48 to 46.5) even though 70% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 30% of the money and 28% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.