Bills @ Patriots
Bills
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Patriots beat the Bills 23-16 at home. The market closed with Bills at -170 on the moneyline and the total at 36.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 70% | 62% | -3 (-115) |
| Patriots | 30% | 38% | +3 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 85% | 79% | O 36.5 (-115) |
| Under | 15% | 21% | U 36.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Bills | 84% | 96% | -170 |
| Patriots | 16% | 4% | +145 |
70% of spread tickets and 62% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
85% of total tickets and 79% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
84% of moneyline tickets and 96% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Patriots?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | +5.5 | +3 | -2.5 |
| Total | 43.5 | 36.5 | -7 |
The Bills opened -5.5 and closed -3, a 2.5-point move toward the Patriots.
The total opened 43.5 and closed 36.5, a 7-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Patriots line move?
The spread moved 2.5 points toward the Patriots (Patriots +5.5 to Patriots +3) even though 62% of the spread money sits on the Bills; the Patriots hold 38% of the money and 30% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 7 points toward the under (43.5 to 36.5) even though 79% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 21% of the money and 15% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.