Chiefs @ Broncos
Chiefs
BroncosArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Chiefs 38-0 at home. The market closed with Chiefs at +460 on the moneyline and the total at 40.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · Broncos betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs Broncos betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs Broncos?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 77% | 63% | +10.5 (-108) |
| Broncos | 23% | 37% | -10.5 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 84% | 87% | O 40.5 (-110) |
| Under | 16% | 13% | U 40.5 (-105) | |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | 36% | 84% | +460 |
| Broncos | 64% | 16% | -624 |
77% of spread tickets and 63% of spread money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Broncos bet was larger.
84% of total tickets and 87% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
The Broncos held 64% of moneyline tickets but only 16% of the money; 84% of moneyline money was on the Chiefs with 36% of tickets, so the average Chiefs bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs Broncos?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Broncos) | -1.5 | -10.5 | -9 |
| Total | 40.5 | 40.5 | 0 |
The Broncos opened -1.5 and closed -10.5, a 9-point move toward the Broncos.
The total opened 40.5 and closed 40.5: it has not moved.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs Broncos line move?
The spread moved 9 points toward the Broncos (Broncos -1.5 to Broncos -10.5) even though 63% of the spread money sits on the Chiefs; the Broncos hold 37% of the money and 23% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from its opening number (40.5) even with 87% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.