Commanders @ Cowboys
Commanders
CowboysArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Commanders beat the Cowboys 23-19 on the road. The market closed with Commanders at -325 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Cowboys betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Cowboys betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Cowboys?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 70% | 76% | -7 (-105) |
| Cowboys | 29% | 23% | +7 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 81% | 67% | O 43.5 (-105) |
| Under | 19% | 33% | U 43.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 85% | 83% | -325 |
| Cowboys | 15% | 17% | +260 |
70% of spread tickets and 76% of spread money were on the Commanders, so the average Commanders bet was larger than the average Cowboys bet.
81% of total tickets and 67% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
85% of moneyline tickets and 83% of moneyline money were on the Commanders, so the Commanders drew more tickets than money and the average Cowboys bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Cowboys?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Cowboys) | -5.5 | +7 | +12.5 |
| Total | 46.5 | 43.5 | -3 |
The Cowboys opened -5.5 and closed +7, a 12.5-point move toward the Commanders.
The total opened 46.5 and closed 43.5, a 3-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Cowboys line move?
The spread moved 12.5 points toward the Commanders (Cowboys -5.5 to Cowboys +7), the side holding 76% of the spread money and 70% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 3 points toward the under (46.5 to 43.5) even though 67% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 33% of the money and 19% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.