Saints @ Buccaneers
Saints
BuccaneersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Buccaneers beat the Saints 27-19 at home. The market closed with Saints at +722 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 18 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Saints betting trends · Buccaneers betting trends · all NFL games
Saints vs Buccaneers betting splits
Where was the money on Saints vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Saints | 16% | 16% | +14.5 (+100) |
| Buccaneers | 84% | 84% | -14.5 (-120) | |
| Total | Over | 82% | 90% | O 44.5 (-108) |
| Under | 18% | 10% | U 44.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Saints | 4% | 12% | +722 |
| Buccaneers | 96% | 88% | -1151 |
84% of spread tickets and 84% of spread money were on the Buccaneers, with money and tickets in step.
82% of total tickets and 90% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
96% of moneyline tickets and 88% of moneyline money were on the Buccaneers, so the Buccaneers drew more tickets than money and the average Saints bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Saints vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Buccaneers) | -8 | -14.5 | -6.5 |
| Total | 43.5 | 44.5 | +1 |
The Buccaneers opened -8 and closed -14.5, a 6.5-point move toward the Buccaneers.
The total opened 43.5 and closed 44.5, a 1-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Saints vs Buccaneers line move?
The spread moved 6.5 points toward the Buccaneers (Buccaneers -8 to Buccaneers -14.5), the side holding 84% of the spread money and 84% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1 point toward the over (43.5 to 44.5), the side holding 90% of the total money and 82% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.