Broncos @ Bills
Broncos
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Broncos 31-7 at home. The market closed with Broncos at +330 on the moneyline and the total at 49. This was an NFL 2024 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Broncos betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Broncos vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Broncos vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos | 36% | 42% | +7.5 (-108) |
| Bills | 64% | 58% | -7.5 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 84% | 81% | O 49 (-110) |
| Under | 16% | 19% | U 49 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Broncos | 9% | 21% | +330 |
| Bills | 91% | 79% | -425 |
64% of spread tickets and 58% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Broncos bet was larger.
84% of total tickets and 81% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
91% of moneyline tickets and 79% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Broncos bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Broncos vs Bills?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -8.5 | -7.5 | +1 |
| Total | 47.5 | 49 | +1.5 |
The Bills opened -8.5 and closed -7.5, a 1-point move toward the Broncos.
The total opened 47.5 and closed 49, a 1.5-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Broncos vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Broncos (Bills -8.5 to Bills -7.5) even though 58% of the spread money sits on the Bills; the Broncos hold 42% of the money and 36% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 1.5 points toward the over (47.5 to 49), the side holding 81% of the total money and 84% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.