Commanders @ Buccaneers
Commanders
BuccaneersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Commanders beat the Buccaneers 23-20 on the road. The market closed with Commanders at +135 on the moneyline and the total at 51.5. This was an NFL 2024 week 1 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Buccaneers betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Buccaneers betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 60% | 67% | +3 (-110) |
| Buccaneers | 40% | 33% | -3 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 75% | 77% | O 51.5 (-108) |
| Under | 25% | 23% | U 51.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 33% | 60% | +135 |
| Buccaneers | 67% | 40% | -160 |
60% of spread tickets and 67% of spread money were on the Commanders, so the average Commanders bet was larger than the average Buccaneers bet.
75% of total tickets and 77% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
The Buccaneers held 67% of moneyline tickets but only 40% of the money; 60% of moneyline money was on the Commanders with 33% of tickets, so the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Buccaneers) | -3 | -3 | 0 |
| Total | 50.5 | 51.5 | +1 |
The Buccaneers opened -3 and closed -3: the spread has not moved.
The total opened 50.5 and closed 51.5, a 1-point move toward the over.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Buccaneers line move?
The spread did not move from its opening number (Buccaneers -3) even with 67% of the spread money on the Commanders. The total moved 1 point toward the over (50.5 to 51.5), the side holding 77% of the total money and 75% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.