Packers @ Bears
Packers
BearsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bears beat the Packers 22-16 at home. The market closed with Packers at -100 on the moneyline and the total at 45. This was an NFL 2025 week 16 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the opening line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Packers betting trends · Bears betting trends · all NFL games
Packers vs Bears betting splits
Where was the money on Packers vs Bears?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Packers | 56% | 57% | +1.5 (-105) |
| Bears | 44% | 43% | -1.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 61% | 65% | O 45 (-110) |
| Under | 39% | 35% | U 45 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Packers | 46% | 34% | -100 |
| Bears | 54% | 66% | -120 |
56% of spread tickets and 57% of spread money were on the Packers, so the average Packers bet was larger than the average Bears bet.
61% of total tickets and 65% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
54% of moneyline tickets and 66% of moneyline money were on the Bears, so the average Bears bet was larger than the average Packers bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Packers vs Bears?
| Market | Opening | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bears) | +2.5 | -1.5 | -4 |
| Total | 45.5 | 45 | -0.5 |
The Packers opened -2.5 and closed +1.5, a 4-point move toward the Bears.
The total opened 45.5 and closed 45, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
Why the line moved
Why did the Packers vs Bears line move?
The spread moved 4 points toward the Bears (Bears +2.5 to Bears -1.5) even though 57% of the spread money sits on the Packers; the Bears hold 43% of the money and 44% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (45.5 to 45) even though 65% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 35% of the money and 39% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.